10.27.2004

269-269




From California GOP Consultant Dave Gilliard's blog...



With one week to go, George Bush and John Kerry are in a virtual dead heat in both popular and electoral votes. It is very possible that the electoral count could finish at 269 to 269, throwing the race to the House of Representatives!



Here is my analysis of where its stands:



Iowa 7 Leans Bush

Colorado 9 Leans Bush

Michigan 17 Leans Kerry

Pennsylvania 21 Leans Kerry

West Virginia 5 Leans Bush

Missouri 11 Leans Bush

Nevada 5 Leans Bush

Arkansas 6 Leans Bush



If these states hold, Bush has 234 Electoral votes and Kerry has 228. That leaves six states that could go either way:



Florida 27

New Mexico 5

Ohio 20

Wisconsin 10

Minnesota 10

New Hampshire 4



Right now, I'd say that New Mexico and Wisconsin are leaning slightly to Bush and Minnesota and New Hampshire are leaning slightly to Kerry. That puts the electoral count at 249 Bush to 242 Kerry.



Florida and Ohio are too close to call. If all my other assumptions are correct, Ohio, with 20 votes, is not relevant. This election, like 2000, will be decided in the Sunshine State.



If Bush wins Florida and loses Ohio, he finishes with 276 Electoral votes to Kerry's 262 If Kerry wins Florida and loses Ohio, he finishes with 269 Electoral votes - one short.



That means Kerry has to win Florida and Ohio, while Bush just needs Florida, if all the other assumptions hold.



Now the fun part. If Bush wins Ohio and Kerry wins Florida, the Electoral College will finish at 269 for each candidate.



More later on what fun it would be to be a presidential elector in a tied race...

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