9.30.2003

FUZZY MATH



Something seems amiss. As the starf**kers Arnold calls supporters are going around in a frenzied circle jerk, prematurely all-but-proclaiming victory because of the CNN poll showing Arnold with a big lead, his insiders are frantically pushing last second stunts.

Ray Haynes, a generally principled conservative made a fool of himself saying Arnold holds our same values, while at the same time even Pete Wilson says Arnold is more liberal than even he.

And, in a unanimous move today, the California Republican Party endorsed Arnold for Governor.

If Arnold’s doing so well, why would the Party alienate a full 20% of the state, and large chunk of its membership like that???

Something’s amiss, and I imagine that in days to come we’ll find out exactly what has Arnold’s brains racing in circles.

NOT OVER TILL JACKIE GOLDBERG SINGS



The new CNN poll results are causing a big stir in political land, these being the first semi-credible polls showing Arnold taking a lead and Tom’s momentum staying put.

I don’t now, and I’m so sick of Arnold I don’t really care if he is ahead or not. He’s a sick and disgusting human being that I will not in any circumstance support. My concern is why Tom hasn’t moved forward more. Sadly, I know the answer.

To this point, unfortunately his campaign has been very poorly run. That is not a criticism of Senator McClintock necessarily, but more about the poor service his newly hired help has brought him, namely the incompetent staff of Congressman Richard Pombo.

Now, I’m not privy to anything special as to why these bozos in particular were brought aboard. All I know is what the Secretary of State’s website tells me, and what I can observe with my own two eyes. Pombo’s Chief of Staff Steve Ding is serving as Tom’s political director. With the little bit of TV I watch, I’ve personally had to witness Ding being chewed up on TV several times. Through the grapevine, I also hear of many blunders he’s made that are murdering Tom’s campaign. Having witnessed and heard of his incompetence and lack of service to Senator McClintock, I was irked enough by this chap. Add to that though that this scumbag managed Congressman Pombo’s last campaign while still on the federal payrolls, and now I’m just downright pissed! Friend of the taxpayer my ass!

But, to add to my distaste of Congressman Pombo and his staff/friends, this morning’s LA Times gives me all the ammo I need. As I woke up and stumbled down the stairs to brew my pot of pre-Starbucks coffee, I continued down the stairs to grab the paper sitting nicely outside my front door. As it was that I was awake at an unholy hour, I wasn’t completely with it, but I still noticed the nice picture of Tom gracing the front page. When I saw the headline, or rather the subheadline, I quickly snapped from my morning-dazed mode into downright fed-up mode.

“Schwarzenegger appears to gain ground as McClintock's aide all but concedes.”

“Dammit,” I thought as I scanned the article for the applicable quote. And then, there it was:

“I still contend when this is done, Tom will beat Bustamante. He'll come in second.” That coming from our dear campaign director, John Feliz.

Now, if there is a quicker way to dry up your fundraising than to suggest certain defeat, I’m missing it because that’s about the quickest way I can think of. Feliz, of course, is also a Pombo-hack.

Now, don’t start to think that I’m the only one questioning McClintock’s strategery. Today, this appeared in the National Review Online from Arnie Steinberg…

“McClintock's campaign has pretty much let Arnold off the hook. Schwarzenegger's high profile was an early gift to McClintock, but his campaign didn't know what to do. If the state senator had confronted Arnold daily, a dozen cameras would have covered him. Here was the perfect storm for an indigent candidate like McClintock who could barely afford paid media: unlimited free media.

Perhaps the turning point was the Great Debate last week. This was McClintock's final opportunity to turn the corner. For reasons that only he knows, Tom McClintock did not engage Arnold Schwarzenegger.”

Day-to-day, Tom surrounds himself with a great political team. Why he has chosen NOW to deviate from his team, and entrust his campaign to obvious imbeciles, is something I may never know…

But Tom is still the man, and he still has a shot at winning. Combining the money he has raised with that of the IE’s on his behalf, his message will have over $4 million behind it. When the campaign began, Tom predicted that if he had $4million by Election Day, he’d be as competitive as anyone. He does. In fact, with more than a week to do, he already has more than $4million.

Also, as much of Arnold’s support lies in atypical voters, if it looks as if Arnold will win going away, many will probably stay home. Also, as Cruz slips and the “a vote for Tom is a vote for Cruz” rhetoric stops, many may well vote their consciences after all and cast their vote for Tom…It may take a perfect storm for Tom to win at this point, but this optimist hasn’t given up home just yet…

That said, I have come to a conclusion. I just can’t bear the thought of an Arnold reign of terror. The damage he’d do to the state and the Party are more than I can bear to think about. Therefore, the Flying Monkey is voting NO ON THE RECALL, YES ON MCCLINTOCK!

9.21.2003

OPPORTUNITY EXISTS


If it’s to happen that Tom McClintock is elected Governor, the stage is certainly set.

Internal Democrat polls right now have:
Arnold – 28 (+3)
Cruz – 25 (-5)
Tom – 20 (+2)


Seeing Cruz slipping, the Indians have stepped up and put on a million dollar ad buy as an Independent Expenditure for Tom. That should push Tom’s name ID even further, pushing his numbers up higher.

Also, as Cruz has seen Arnold’s numbers pick up, he and the Democrats in general surely are readying to nuke Arnold once and for all. Attacking him ideologically and personally, his negatives should skyrocket and his overall numbers should drop dramatically.

At the same time, Republicans will probably go off on Cruz. His Mecha ties definitely provide ample fodder to attack Cruz, as well as the fact he’s graduated college within the last three years.

As these two public assassinations occur simultaneously, Tom will be the only guy left mostly unscathed. With a million dollar ad buy, and possibly more as we get closer to the election, the opportunity is definitely there for Tom to sneak thru at the end and become Governor of California.

9.17.2003

ACTUALLY, DEAN MAY BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN ARNOLD


Fiscally, according to the Cato Institute, Howard Dean is on par with Jim Gilmore and batter than Marc Racicot.

He has an A+ from the NRA.

While Arnold thinks schools do a better job raising kids, and wants $400 million so they can take care of AFTER SCHOOL, as well as during school, Dean’s own website says, “The most important predictor is the attitude in that child's home toward education. We must involve parents again; we must insist that they participate in their children's education, and we must make schools and school boards responsive to parents.”

By gosh, Arnold IS more liberal than Dean on a great many things...scary, huh?

I'M SUPPOSED TO FOLLOW THIS GUY UP A HILL?


Hugh Hewitt continues to blame Tom McClintock for Arnold and his campaign’s shortcomings. Today, he cries that as many as 11,000 absentee ballots may have been cast for Tom, and how potentially that could be disastrous for Arnold. Well, who’s fault is that?

Who forced Arnold to not sign a “No New Taxes” pledge? Who forced Arnold to come out against Prop54? Who told Arnold that he had to turn the keys to the Governor’s Mansion over to the CTA? Who told Arnold he had to be so strong on baby killing? Who made Arnold call us “right wing crazies”?

Steve Lopez in the LA Times has it about right on Arnold, “a know-nothing actor whose politics are those of a pro-war Howard Dean.”

Why on earth is any of this Tom McClintock’s fault? Economics 101 tells us that when there’s a market for something, someone will come to fill that void. Same is true in politics. There’d be a HUGE gap in the ideological spectrum missing in this race if Tom were absent, the area commonly known as “the right.”

Had Arnold offered even crumbs to conservatives, many would be on board. However, he has offered no concessions, and so instead of leading a united Republican charge, he’s had to rely on Hugh Hewitt calling people names. Some kinda leader, huh?

CONSERVATIVES?

Hugh Hewitt has gone so far as using the endorsements of Congressmen David Dreier, Chris Cox, and Dana Rohrabacher as evidence of Arnold’s fiscal credentials. Let us not forget who these same so-called conservatives endorsed for Governor last time around…Dick Riordan.

9.16.2003

PRINCIPLES OVER POLITICS

I find it curious that Hugh Hewitt, a so-called conservative, refers to Tom McClintock and his supporters in such a shrill manner. There is no question that Tom is more qualified and that his views are exactly what we as conservatives, hope more legislators hope for in a candidate. Conversely, there is no question that Arnold’s stances on a great many issues leave much room for conservatives to be skeptical. Additionally, there are serious and legitimate character questions about Arnold. (Trust me, some of the stuff out there will make people sick.)

McClintock has spent his career carrying the conservative banner in California. Arnold has spent a career lifting heavy things and making movies. And yet Hugh dismisses Tom as all that is wrong with the Republican Party. I’d say such is quite the opposite. Take away Arnold’s name id, and we would all be furious with him, his audacity at entering this race, and his boldness at shooing away conservatives altogether. McClintock is a hero to conservatives throughout California. He’s been the recipient of absolutely zero help from the Party establishment throughout the years, most recently in his 2002 campaign for State Controller when he was passed over for financial help, presumably because he was “too conservative to win,” despite the fact that the liberal San Francisco Chronicle had endorsed him simply as a matter of qualified vs. not, and he ended up losing by a mere 16,000 votes, just ½ vote per precinct.

Tom is the candidate conservatives nationwide should be clamoring for. He’s been unyielding in his support of the issues, uncompromising in the face of overwhelming opposition, unrelenting even in the face of Party pressure. He was THE one fighting Pete Wilson’s tax hikes in 1991. Tom has managed a voting record that’d make any conservative proud, been reelected time and time again in a swing district (a Democrat Target this coming election), and been a leader on the issues for years. And yet, despite all that, Hugh insists on mocking him and his supporters.

If the commentary was, “we love you Tom, but please take one for the team,” I could understand. But it’s not. It’s shrill, insulting, and mocking. And, oddly enough, it’s just that that makes it counterproductive. People are showing their true colors here. They’re showing that they do not put principles over politics, as the old YAF mantra goes, but rather the other way around. And people like that have never really been on Tom’s team.

The entirety of Hugh’s argument is that somehow the Party in and of itself, is worthwhile. Most people who label themselves “conservative” think otherwise. Tom definitely is a conservative first and a Republican second. He’s a movement guy, and the idea of moving aside so next year he can fight someone in his own Party trying to raise taxes just isn’t going to fly with him.

9.04.2003

BUSTAMANTE RECORD DOESN'T ADD UP

BILL ANALYSIS
WAYS AND MEANS COMMITTEE ANALYSIS


Author: Alquist Amended: 06/09/93 Bill No.: SB 976

Policy Committee: Transportation Vote: 9 - 5

Summary

This bill prohibits the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) from issuing a driver's license or identification card to any person who does not establish proof that he or she is a citizen or legal resident of the United States.

The bill requires DMV to verify, through the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) of the United States, the status of applicants who declare themselves to be lawful residents in compliance with federal law.


AYES
****


Aguiar Alby Allen Alpert
Andal Areias Boland Bornstein
Bowen Bowler Bronshvag Brulte
Bustamante Caldera Cannella Connolly
Conroy Costa Eastin Epple
Ferguson Frazee Goldsmith Gotch
Harvey Hauser Haynes Hoge
Honeycutt Horcher Johnson Jones
Karnette Katz Knight Knowles
Margolin Martinez Morrow Mountjoy
Nolan O'Connell Peace Pringle
Quackenbush Rainey Richter Seastrand
Sher Snyder Speier Statham
Takasugi Tucker Umberg Weggeland
Woodruff


NOES
****

Archie-Hudson Baca Bates Valerie Brown
Burton Escutia Hannigan Isenberg
Klehs Lee Moore Murray
Napolitano Polanco Solis


ABSENT, ABSTAINING, OR NOT VOTING
*********************************

Campbell Cortese Barbara Friedman Terry Friedman
McDonald Vasconcellos Willie Brown Vacancy

9.03.2003

Hugh Hewitt, despite what he says, has never been a friend to conservatives.

He backed Riordan wholeheartedly. He claims to be this bigtime religious leader, though at every chance he gets, he sells out those who DO STAND for the issues he claims to stand for.

Today, he makes it even worse. In an insulting, poorly written, half assed attempt to combat McClintock’s growing grassroots support, Hugh makes such claims as “Tom cannot win. He’s not even close.”

Ummm, Hugh. Last FieldPoll, if you combine Tom and Simon, has Tom within the margin of error from Arnold…Screw you!

And for the, ‘he can’t win, lets not fight’ rationale? Ya, that would’ve gone over really well if George Washington and Co, had stuck to the “the British are too big to beat, let’s not fight” mentality. Thank God we had leaders like Thomas Paine to convince them to fight for their freedom. And also thank God, sellouts like Hugh Hewitt weren’t there to try to convince them otherwise.

With Republicans like Hugh, who needs Democrats?

9.02.2003

What Ueberroth Is Doing RIGHT

Peter Ueberroth’s campaign is receiving very little press, probably because he lacks a)the money to put himself among the top tier, and b)the personality to make the story on his own. That aside, he is running one of the most technically competent campaigns around.

Three things in particular caught my eye.

1)For some time, fiscal conservatives have fancied the idea of a constitutional amendment capping government spending increases to the sum of population and inflation increases. When explaining such ideas, the eyes of even many activists glaze over with the sort of boredom seldom seen outside of students’ eyes on the first day of Economics 101.

Ueberroth, or more likely his campaign manager Dan Schnur, solved this problem. Instead of boring sounding budget jargin, he calls this plan, THE TAXPAYER’S BILL OF RIGHTS, a phrase people will remember and a phrase people will buy intol.

2)Ueberroth is employing regional ads. Thus far, Peter’s been pushing primarily on radio, and yes he has a generic introduction ad that is applicable statewide. BUT, he also has specific ads for the Bay Area that tell listeners that he grew up in the Bay Area, and a Central Valley ad telling listeners that he is a part-time farmer…

Radio ads don’t cost ALL THAT MUCH to cut, and with the increased traction local ads are likely to produce, it seems that this could be the beginning of a trend…

3)Meetup.com has proved a blessing for Howard Dean. Used as a way to organize grassroots supporters online, it has taken off in national politics. Ueberroth has also used this on his website, and though in my humble opinion there just isn’t enough time to utilize MeetUp, it is a good thought nonetheless.

W IS NO GIPPER

Every time I hear some blowhard compare W to the Gipper it makes me cringe. And if there's any confusion, let me show you...

“Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.” - Gip


"We have a responsibility that when somebody hurts, government has got to move." -- W

Popularity as a percentage of Name-ID

Over the weekend, a CBS News poll was released. What it did interesting that hasn’t been done in other major recent polls, was showcase name-id, in addition to showing preference for one candidate over another…

Let me explain. In most polls, respondents are given a list of candidates and asked to pick their preference. In the CBS poll, respondents were asked 1)Can you name a candidate? and 2)who do you like most?

The results were interesting, as Howard Dean was ahead in both name-id and as the top Democrat pick for President…

The Presidential race aside, think if this poll was applied to California.

At 100% name-id, Arnold’s 22-25% is pretty feeble. Cruz is at about 30-35%, probably with decent name-id among likely voters. Even Peter Ueberroth probably has pretty decent name-id, but relatively little support.

Now think of Tom McClintock. With next to no name-id, he’s pushing hard at 20%. In terms of a percentage of WHO’S HEARD OF YOU TO WHO’S VOTING FOR YOU, McClintock is the clear leader. In other words, anyone who knows who Tom is, is voting for him. He doesn’t need to persuade people, just make sure they’ve heard of him…THAT is a lot easier than the job Cruz and Arnold have in the remaining month…

Just something to be paying attention to as the recall unfolds further…

I HATE LABOR DAY

Yesterday of course was Labor Day, a day where no one works in celebration of working…Well, sort of.

Labor Day, in theory is a day of ‘appreciation’ for organized labor, ie unions. That is why Labor Day is (next to Cesar Chavez Day) my least favorite holiday. Sure, I get a day off, but FOR THAT?!?!

So, just as I make it a point every Cesar Chavez Day to lift a glass of red grape juice, every Labor Day I make it a point to shop at stores where employees are non-unionized.

WalMart, Trader Joe’s, the Gap…all great non-unionized places!

Especially this year, in these times of burgeoning recovery, if there’s anything we don’t need are unions forcing companies into the ground.

And that’s just private unions…Don’t even get me started on Public employees unions…GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR