8.30.2003

ARNOLD'S WAVE IS CRASHING



Arnold’s stuck. The wave he rode in on has crashed, for a moment letting him alone as he lay there on the sand, but not anymore. He’s now stuck in a riptide that’s yanking him back out to sea, and another wave is readying to crash on his head. That wave is Senator Tom McClintock.

For the past several weeks, Tom was just the thorn in Arnold’s side. Regularly, the press tossed questions Tom’s way along the lines of “When are you going to drop out any unite behind Arnold?” “Are you the spoiler for the Republicans?” “Have you heard the Ross Perot comparisons?” On and on they went. Not an interview went by where the press wasn’t asking Tom if he’d been receiving calls pressuring him to drop out.

But oh that tide’s a turnin’

Now the questions are based with a premise of Arnold’s demise. “If Arnold collapses are you going to be able to rally all Republicans around you?” “If Arnold implodes, can you pick up the pieces” etc.

From Saturday’s Washington Post, in follow up to Arnold’s Oui article comes, “But if he loses his credibility, he won't have much left. And if that happens, Republicans may hope that Tom McClintock has not yet dropped out.

In the media’s ceaseless ability to coronate themselves irrefutable strategists for both parties, they now see Tom as an asset rather than a liability for Republicans. They see Arnold’s demise as inevitable, and Tom as a more than adequate safety valve should the inevitable come to pass.

Tom’s train may have started a little slower, but that’s just because its got so much heavier a load to carry!

8.26.2003

Arnold Ain't got the 'Big Mo'



Despite the media’s best efforts at making Arnold’s election as Governor a self-fulfilling prophecy, he is stuck. With overwhelming name-id, an overly friendly press, and a campaign budget second to none, Arnold can’t pull himself up from where he was three weeks ago. Yet, watching TV, reading the newspapers, or listening to the radio you’d never know that.

A look at the progression of the major polls shows Arnold hasn’t moved an inch since jumping in the race. In fact, if he’s gone anywhere, he’s dropped a bit.

LATimes(8/16-21) 22%
PPIC(8/8-17) 23%
Field Poll(8/10-13) 22%
Time/CNN (8/8) 25%


With Cruz having jumped 20%, from 15% - 35% in that same time period, and State Senator Tom McClintock gaining steam quickly, climbing from 5% to 12%+, Arnold has got to be worried. One thing’s for certain, it sure ain’t Arnold who’s got the “MO.”

Call in the fat lady




This recall thing is just about wrapped up. Say hello to Governor Castro, er, I mean Bustamante.

As I’ve said before, the Dems have already jumped ship with Davis and aren’t wasting time kissing up to Cruz the way they had to Davis in the past. They know the same coin-operated-government will be in affect with Cruz at the helm, and so they aren’t wasting any time whispering sweet nothings in Cruz’s ear, telling him how smart he is, how great of a leader he is, blablabla.

First it was some smaller unions. Then it was Barbara Boxer. Then it was the CTA. Now, the big one has landed. Cruz has nailed down the AFL-CIO endorsement. Jeebus. The chips are all falling into place for Cruz.

I guess the only thing left to see is whether Cruz grows a beard, finds an affinity for green military fatigues, and gives his inaugural address in espanol.

8.22.2003

MORE COALESCING


UPDATE: I guess I had missed it, but Senator Barbara Boxer has also backed Cruz. So far, a few prominent labor groups, California Congressional Democrats, and Senator Barbara Boxer. I guess he’s only got nature nazis, baby killers, flag burners, and some more union thugs to go.

8.21.2003

NOFZIGER SUPPORTS MCCLINTOCK...WHY AREN'T YOU?



Lyn Nofziger was Ronald Reagan's go-to guy from the time he was Governor, all the way to and through the White House. He has been a leader of the conservative movement, an unflinching light guiding conservatives around the country. Though mostly retired, he still keeps an online blog of sorts. Lyn is a personal hero of mine, and it's personally encouraging to feel aligned, even in this small way, with one of the conservative movements strongest supporters.


Dear Friend,

Our State of California is in the national spotlight these days because it appears likely that disgusted voters will recall Governor Davis, the man who put the state in severe financial trouble and doesn’t have either the brains or guts to fix the problems.

Because I spent so much of my political career working with Ronald Reagan, people are asking my opinion of this campaign and the candidates. That’s why I am writing this letter about State Senator Tom McClintock, who is one of the four leading contenders running to replace Davis.

McClintock is the candidate who is unquestionably most knowledgeable about state government and undoubtedly is the most qualified. He is also the only real conservative in the race. He knows what the problems are that a new governor would face and he has a program for solving them.

Were I still in California, I would unhesitatingly vote for him.

McClintock must overcome two problems if he is to be elected. One is money.

If he can raise enough money (and I assure you he will use it wisely), McClintock will be a serious contender.

The other problem is the gossip that he can’t win because of the money problem. With your help he can overcome that.

You may recall that 37 years ago the “experts” were saying the same thing about Ronald Reagan. He couldn’t win.

But Reagan did back then exactly what Tom McClintock is doing today. He went around the state from one city to the next, speaking in plain terms that people could relate to, about how he would fix the problems created by a then Democrat incumbent Pat Brown.

People could see the good and the principled integrity in Ronald Reagan back then just as they see them in Tom McClintock today.

And believe me, California more than ever needs a Governor who is a good and honest person NOW.

There are only a few weeks left before the October 7th Election. That's why I am asking you to help me build a national conservative crusade to fund Tom McClintock’s campaign.

With $38 billion in debt and more on the horizon, California voters can’t afford to make a mistake in this election.

Please click here to make your most generous contribution right now.

Sincerely,
Lyn Nofziger

ARNOLD CONTINUES WAFFLING ON ISSUES






First Arnold was out, then he was in.

Then he was for Prop 187, now it’s becoming clear he never was.

Then Buffet said he was against California Republican sacred cow Prop 13, but Arnold’s since said he definitely supports Howard Jarvis’ baby.

Just recently he’s said Californians are already overtaxed, but today a campaign spokesman hinted that continuing deficits could bring about tax hikes under Governor Schwarzenegger.

I like my waffles for breakfast, not running the state.

Thoughts…



1)Have you heard/read Simon talking about the candidate field lately? It’s horribly irritating. I remember his spokesman KB Forbes saying, “This is an ABC election. Arnold, Bill, Cruz.” Today on John and Ken, Simon talked again only about Arnold and Cruz.

NEWSFLASH TO SIMON: I know you’re trying to pretend Tom McClintock doesn’t exist, but simply wishing it doesn’t make it so. Despite the unreliability of all of these polls, McClintock is ahead of Simon in each and every one of them. Simon is living in a dream world, and it’s this same lack of seeing reality that caused him to miss his MANY mistakes last time around. Bill, knock it off!

2)Today’s pep rally with DiFi and Gray was silly. It was a forum for DiFi to say she wasn’t going to vote for Bustamante, but the forum itself bears note. It was a gun control push, with Sheriff Lee Baca and Police Chief Willy Bratton in attendance. I must say I am mystified by this strategy. Schwarzenegger is already on record as pro-gun control. On the surface they’re attacking Republicans for supporting the individual’s right to bear arms, but in actuality it looks like they’re trying to bait Arnold to the left, alienating the conservative support he’s working so hard to obtain.

Funny, the basic strategy Arnold thinks will win him the election is the same strategy Gray thinks will cause him to lose…Sounds funny to say it, but lets hope Gray is right!

3)Don’t be fooled by today’s headlines that because DiFi has backed Governor Davis, that this is going to be the beginning of a big, fun Democrat game of rally-round-the-loser.

In the past days, the California Assn. of Highway Patrolmen, the California State Employees Assn, the California Conference of Carpenters, and now California Congressional Democrats have endorsed Cruz for Gov. The push for Democrats to coalesce around one candidate is shaping up much quicker than any Republican plan to rally around Arnold.

The Democrats stand on party discipline and party loyalty, while Republicans stand on principle. I guess its just 1964 all over again.

ARNOLD HAS NO CLOTHES





The Field Poll released last week was dismissed by many as inconclusive because of a small sample size, but of the three major polls released so far it is the only one at all reliable.

The first, a CNN-USA Today-Gallup Poll was useless. First, even though it was put in the field after candidate filing closed, it still pointlessly asked respondents if they were planning on voting for candidates NOT RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR. Second, and more importantly, it asked voters if there was a “good or very good chance” of voting for so-and-so. Added up, responses added up to an amazing 172 percent. Certainly puts Arnold’s 42 percent in perspective.

The second, a California Field Poll, was largely criticized because its small sample of 629 registered voters, 448 of which were targeted as likely voters. A small sample, yes. But their model was straightforward, and their methods reliable.

Now comes a Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll, being reported in USA Today, the Washington Times, etc. It shows Arnold out in the lead 23%-18% over Cruz Bustamante, with no other candidates breaking 4%. Add in the fact that this poll was taken Aug 8-17, as Arnold was in hiding, and just on the surface it seems a little odd. Well, there’s a reason for that.

Taken from a sample of 2,001 responses, the PPIC poll only included 1540 registered voters. Almost a full quarter of respondents weren’t registered voters. And unlike the Field Poll where 71% of respondents were likely voters, the PPIC poll tags less than half its respondents as likely voters.

You could go poll any high school freshman English class, and of course Arnold’s going to poll well, but until people start looking at a serious, legitimate turnout model, and spend the time accumulating a sizable sample of likely voters, Arnold is going to continue to look unbeatable. When someone does accumulate these numbers though, conservatives turned off by Arnold will be seen leaving for Simon and McClintock, and Democrats will be seen leaving for Cruz. Soon, we will see that the Emperor has no clothes. And until then, when anyone tries to push these poll numbers in your face, look them straight in the eye and say, "Those numbers are bogus."

8.20.2003

VOTE NO ON ARNOLD!





Like most Republicans, I tried to find something I liked in Arnold. I wanted to support him, I really did. If he’d have just given me something to grab onto, maybe, maybe I could’ve reluctantly supported him. But he hasn’t. He’s been terrible. He’s been every conservative’s worst nightmare, and worse.

At first, I thought “OK, he may be pretty bad on social stuff, but at least he’ll champion the supply-side cause.” OOPS. Day 1 of Buffet-watch ended that.

Then, I thought, “Well OK, maybe he’ll at least be a strong partisan Republican. With the legislature made up the way it is, if he campaigned aggressively for Republicans and took some sort of joy in beating Democrats, maybe that’d be enough for me to support him. Aligning with the Terminator to kick Jackie Goldberg’s fat butt might just convince me to hop on the Arnold bandwagon.” Well, then came the Rob Lowe appointment.

Jeez. He can’t be relied upon to tow the line on taxes, and he’s probably not going to be a big fan of fighting Democrats. He’s sure making this tough for me.

“But OK,” I thought to myself, “because he’s taken this hard anti-special interest line, maybe he’ll help us beat the unions back a little.” DANG IT! He can’t even do that. From campaign spokesman Sean Walsh, "Arnold made a commitment that [CTA] would have a seat at the table”

Selling out to the evil CTA, ALREADY…There goes that idea.

Well, as a last resort, getting desperate, I thought, “maybe some conservatives are just overstating some of his social views. Maybe he isn’t as bad as everyone’s saying.”

Then comes today’s bomb:

”He [Arnold] is not as conservative as I am on social issues.”

And this from the leader of the squishes Pete Wilson…

I tried to buy into Arnold, I really did…But bad on taxes, a probable reluctance to fight Democrats, not even elected and already a union hack, and worse than Pete Wilson on social issues…We’ve got a way to describe Republicans like this…

THEY’RE CALLED DEMOCRATS!

On Oct 7, Vote NO on ARNOLD!

8.19.2003

National Review Gets It!

National Review has been one “establishment” group, that from the beginning, has been rock solid in not buying into the Arnold hype. Now, this from their editorial board:

“Arnold Schwarzenegger's Tonight Show campaign announcement brought the recall to a boil, but Schwarzenegger, it seems clear, does not merit conservative support.

“But Schwarzenegger is pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control.

“Rudy Giuliani was a liberal Republican who was a hard-core conservative on one salient issue — crime. Schwarzenegger appears to be simply a liberal Republican.”

Damn Right!

FIELD POLL – Part 2

TIIIIMMMBBEEEEEEEERRRR!!!
Arnold’s gonna fall, and fall hard.

Looking at the Field Poll, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his band of Wilsonites, had better be worried.

The initial campaign strategy was this: get major Republicans to tell Party loyalists how great a Republican Arnold is, hoping they’ll then ignore the fact he walks, talks, and acts like a Democrat. That, in turn, will draw Independents and Democrats to the campaign. Problem is, this strategy is already showing signs of weakness.

+ With Cruz Bustamante aligning left, Simon and McClintock right, Arnold has the normally viciously fought over middle all to himself. Yet for some reason, those spineless souls that describe themselves “Independent” are living up to their name, not aligning lockstep behind Arnold.

Just 9% of Democrats and just 27% of Independents support der Arnold. And only 23% of those self-described as middle-of-the-road are supporting Schwarzenegger.

+ What’s more, Arnold’s numbers are soft, being lifted by those groups least likely to vote.

The age group most inclined towards Arnold, not surprisingly, are those 18-39 at 29%. The education-level demographic most fond of Arnold, those with a high school degree or less at 28%. Too bad for Arnold, THESE FOLKS DON’T VOTE.

+ Even worse, Arnold’s disapproval ratings are at a catastrophic 40%, with only 16% yet undecided about him. This, keep in mind, is before he’s laid down one policy proposal, reached out to one constituency group, or spoken publicly about one current event.

Arnold’s going down, and he’s going down hard. And from where I sit, it’s good riddance.

FIELD POLL – Part 1

WHY TOM MCCLINTOCK IS FAR BETTER OFF THAN BILL SIMON.

The Field Poll released over the weekend is very telling, and very encouraging…if you’re a Tom McClintock fan.

While the overall results of the poll show McClintock with just a 1 point lead over Simple Simon, well within the 5-point margin of error, deeper inside do the points that'd put a smile on your face lie.

+ Among REPUBLICANS, McClintock is 2 points up, 19-17. That despite Simon having spent the past two years as the Party’s standard-bearer, and having near total name id among likely voters.

+ Among self-described CONSERVATIVES, McClintock opens a 3-point lead, 21-18.

+ Among typical Republican-leaning demographics, McClintock leads Simon among WHITES 11-9, Men 11-8, and college graduates 20-13. McClintock leads in all but the 40-49 age group.

+ With it being contemplated that the media will lead the GOTV effort with its 24/7 team coverage, McClintock is well placed to take advantage, leading Simon 22-13 in Southern California, an area that makes up 60% of estimated turnout.

+ State tested, voter rejected. Some 86% of the state has already heard what Bill Simon has to offer, and 54% have declined. Amazingly, he still thinks he stands a chance, though only maintaining an overall approval rate of 32%, and having only 14% of the state still undecided about him. The numbers just aren’t there. He doesn’t have the room to go up. That is why many Simon supporters wish he’d have stayed out, and worked more to get his negatives down. Actively campaigning for the “YES on the Recall” campaign would have dramatically helped Bill. However, to run in this race and lose, will forever doom Bill, killing any future chances of holding political office. Splitting the conservative base, ruining (once again) their chances for victory will leave Simon’s only base left, fed up with him.

+ Nowhere to go but up? Tom McClintock surprised many in the Washington elite, and talk show hosts around the country by coming in third in this most recent Field Poll, and every indication is that he’s not done climbing yet. Of the 4 major candidates, McClintock maintains the lowest disapproval rating at 32%. Interestingly, of the major candidates, McClintock maintains the most room for improvement. The approval ratings show that a full 40% of the state has yet to form an opinion of Tom. Generally known as the most candidate with the most commanding grasp of the issues, especially budget issues, Tom has at least respect, if not support, from the liberal establishment. Remember that even the San Francisco Chronicle endorsed his Controller campaign.

Like yeast, time will show McClintock’s numbers continually rising. Democrats will coalesce around Cruz, pulling from Arnold. Conservatives will more and more abandon Arnold. That will kill the Arnold’s only argument among Republicans, that that he can win, and therefore should be supported. As that goes, so goes Arnold. His freefall will leave the door wide open for others, and Tom McClintock will be right there waiting.

NOT THAT ARNOLD…

Takes from California Political Fortune Teller, Arnold Steinberg.



Arnie Steinberg is one of those wise, old men that really just get it. Plus, he’s a conservative. These are some of his takes lately, via National Review Online…

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-steinberg081803.asp

Last week's CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Aug 7-10, was completed after candidate filing closed. But it uselessly included candidates not running (*). Moreover, it asked respondents if there was a "good or very good chance of voting for…." In other words, the multiple name numbers added up to 172 percent: Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Dick Riordan*, 24 percent; Cruz Bustamante, 22 percent; Bill Simon, 13 percent; Tom McClintock, 13 percent; Loretta Sanchez*, 12 percent; John Garamendi*, 10 percent; Peter Ueberroth, 7 percent; Bill Jones*, 8 percent; Arianna Huffington, 7 percent; Peter Camejo, 6 percent; Larry Flynt, 6 percent; Gary Coleman, 2 percent.

This bogus poll was very widely reported as Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Bustamante 22 percent, etc.

Now comes the Field poll, Aug 10-Aug 13. It shows Bustamante, 25 percent; Arnold; 22 percent; etc. The reality: The votes (22 percent) of non-candidates Sanchez (12 percent) and Garamendi (10 percent), not included in this poll, tilted to the one major Democrat, Bustamante. Riordan's and Jones's numbers tilted all over the place.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-steinberg081203.asp

CNN, USA Today, and Gallup have combined forces to add to the confusion. Their latest poll asks voters if "there is a good chance they could vote for…." No wonder the poll carries this disclaimer: "Because of the nature of the unprecedented recall election, the poll does not project a winner or predict how people might vote."

Also, this new poll includes all registered voters. This is unusual, given a special election's typical low turnout. But no one has a reliable voter-turnout model.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has changed the rules. The massive media coverage could make high turnout a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What, then, happens to voting by mail? In local special and recall elections, absentee votes dominate. This time, their nonetheless significant impact would be less.

Meanwhile, on a broader level, reliable data imply more than synergy. The recall and Schwarzenegger are, in the public mind, one and the same.

The recall's bare 5-to-4 majority? It's suddenly a 2-to-1 landslide. Why? Nearly all media coverage is down on Davis. Voters are being told regularly why Davis is unpopular. Who wants to back a loser? Miraculously, the bad Davis numbers currently hold at all voter-turnout scenarios. It's politically correct to oust him.

8.18.2003

STRIKE THREE. ARNOLD'S OUT!



In California, its hard to find a perfect Republican, there just aren’t many of them. Out here, we agree on little…very little. Abortion, 3-strikes, the environment, hell even the recall split us in half. But the things that unite us should be absolutes, no squishing, none at all. Taxes, the budget, and unions should be the things that unite us. All are at the heart of our Party’s philosophy. All are the kinds of things that make us who we are.

In the past days, Arnold Schwarzenegger has failed all three tests.

First, he brought on Warren Buffett who questioned Prop 13. Now, there aren’t many sacred cows in California Republican politics, but Prop 13 is one of them. Strike one.

Then, he raised the possibility of accepting tax increases. According to Drudge , well placed Arnold sources say, “"Look, Arnold will not, cannot say, 'Read my lips, no new taxes. Our first priority will be to get the state back in to top fiscal condition, and everyone knows it takes revenue to achieve this." Raising taxes? No, Arnold. That’s strike two.

But then it gets even worse. Despite Arnold’s insistence that we need to ‘get the special interests out of Sacramento,’ he nonetheless felt it necessary to spend 45 minutes on a phone conference with the ultra-liberal CTA. "Arnold made a commitment that [CTA] would have a seat at the table in education discussions," Walsh said. "With regard to filling out questionnaires or pre-agreeing to specific policies, he basically told them, 'I've been there for the kids. You know my commitment to these issues.'"

"I will never have to make a deal with anybody because special interests cannot buy me.” PLEASE! Arnold, that's strike 3...and you're OUT!

Arnold stands for nothing, and his campaign is going nowhere. What moderates need to learn is that’s what you get when you have a candidate who’s done nothing, knows nothing, and stands for nothing!

8.15.2003

IM BACK AND THINGS TO COME

Well, I’ve been busy lately. I was kicking liberal rear on the recall, and a subsequent, unnamed campaign. But that’s over, so let the blogging begin (again)!

Well, I guess the only story of note these days is the recall. So at this point, let me out in my 14 cents.

First, most of the polls seen about the recall, especially in regards to the replacement question, need to be examined with a curious eye. The reason: there is not a single person that can say with any degree of certainty (or credibility) that they’ve created an accurate turnout model. What is the bump in 18-25 going to look like? How many low propensity voters are going to show up? How much will the media’s constant coverage of the campaign affect turnout? Will that be more felt in media boomtowns like LA? These are serious questions that can’t/won’t be answered until election day, and because no one can accurately answer them, most of the polls are bunk.

That said, let’s take a look at one of the recent polls.

Today’s California Field Poll provides a starting point for recall discussion. Cruz is at 25, Arnold at 22, McClintock at 9, Simon at 8, Ueberroth at 5, Arianna at 4, and Camejo at 2.

A few points about this.

First, this will be Cruz’s low point. At this point there is very little unity among Democrats. That will change when the fear of losing the Governorship becomes real. Democrats will then coalesce around Cruz, taking votes from Arnold.

Second, it is interesting that combined, McClintock and Simon are almost on par with Arnold. At 17% combined, conservatives are really wasting a golden opportunity to get one of their own elected. If one were to drop out and concentrate on running against Barbara Boxer, it would leave a great shot for a conservative to become Governor.

Last, Arnold is toast. Remember that. He’s losing ground as an “outsider” with the promotion of the old Wilson team, and bringing liberals like Warren Buffet and Rob Lowe on board aren’t helping him too much with keeping Republicans around.

The ONLY argument for Arnold is that he can win. This is the same false argument that was used as a rationale for Dick Riordan. Remember that with Riordan, the moment his poll numbers started falling, so to did the merits for the argument to support him. Thus, a freefall ensued. Granted, star power might keep Arnold from collapsing as Riordan did, but that he’s peaked is all I’m saying.

Recall fever is on, and it’s nothing but fun for you and I.

Stay tuned. More to come in the days ahead!