9.02.2003

Popularity as a percentage of Name-ID

Over the weekend, a CBS News poll was released. What it did interesting that hasn’t been done in other major recent polls, was showcase name-id, in addition to showing preference for one candidate over another…

Let me explain. In most polls, respondents are given a list of candidates and asked to pick their preference. In the CBS poll, respondents were asked 1)Can you name a candidate? and 2)who do you like most?

The results were interesting, as Howard Dean was ahead in both name-id and as the top Democrat pick for President…

The Presidential race aside, think if this poll was applied to California.

At 100% name-id, Arnold’s 22-25% is pretty feeble. Cruz is at about 30-35%, probably with decent name-id among likely voters. Even Peter Ueberroth probably has pretty decent name-id, but relatively little support.

Now think of Tom McClintock. With next to no name-id, he’s pushing hard at 20%. In terms of a percentage of WHO’S HEARD OF YOU TO WHO’S VOTING FOR YOU, McClintock is the clear leader. In other words, anyone who knows who Tom is, is voting for him. He doesn’t need to persuade people, just make sure they’ve heard of him…THAT is a lot easier than the job Cruz and Arnold have in the remaining month…

Just something to be paying attention to as the recall unfolds further…

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