8.19.2003

NOT THAT ARNOLD…

Takes from California Political Fortune Teller, Arnold Steinberg.



Arnie Steinberg is one of those wise, old men that really just get it. Plus, he’s a conservative. These are some of his takes lately, via National Review Online…

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-steinberg081803.asp

Last week's CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Aug 7-10, was completed after candidate filing closed. But it uselessly included candidates not running (*). Moreover, it asked respondents if there was a "good or very good chance of voting for…." In other words, the multiple name numbers added up to 172 percent: Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Dick Riordan*, 24 percent; Cruz Bustamante, 22 percent; Bill Simon, 13 percent; Tom McClintock, 13 percent; Loretta Sanchez*, 12 percent; John Garamendi*, 10 percent; Peter Ueberroth, 7 percent; Bill Jones*, 8 percent; Arianna Huffington, 7 percent; Peter Camejo, 6 percent; Larry Flynt, 6 percent; Gary Coleman, 2 percent.

This bogus poll was very widely reported as Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Bustamante 22 percent, etc.

Now comes the Field poll, Aug 10-Aug 13. It shows Bustamante, 25 percent; Arnold; 22 percent; etc. The reality: The votes (22 percent) of non-candidates Sanchez (12 percent) and Garamendi (10 percent), not included in this poll, tilted to the one major Democrat, Bustamante. Riordan's and Jones's numbers tilted all over the place.

http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-steinberg081203.asp

CNN, USA Today, and Gallup have combined forces to add to the confusion. Their latest poll asks voters if "there is a good chance they could vote for…." No wonder the poll carries this disclaimer: "Because of the nature of the unprecedented recall election, the poll does not project a winner or predict how people might vote."

Also, this new poll includes all registered voters. This is unusual, given a special election's typical low turnout. But no one has a reliable voter-turnout model.

Arnold Schwarzenegger has changed the rules. The massive media coverage could make high turnout a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What, then, happens to voting by mail? In local special and recall elections, absentee votes dominate. This time, their nonetheless significant impact would be less.

Meanwhile, on a broader level, reliable data imply more than synergy. The recall and Schwarzenegger are, in the public mind, one and the same.

The recall's bare 5-to-4 majority? It's suddenly a 2-to-1 landslide. Why? Nearly all media coverage is down on Davis. Voters are being told regularly why Davis is unpopular. Who wants to back a loser? Miraculously, the bad Davis numbers currently hold at all voter-turnout scenarios. It's politically correct to oust him.

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