NOT THAT ARNOLD…
Takes from California Political Fortune Teller, Arnold Steinberg.
Arnie Steinberg is one of those wise, old men that really just get it. Plus, he’s a conservative. These are some of his takes lately, via National Review Online…
Last week's CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Aug 7-10, was completed after candidate filing closed. But it uselessly included candidates not running (*). Moreover, it asked respondents if there was a "good or very good chance of voting for…." In other words, the multiple name numbers added up to 172 percent: Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Dick Riordan*, 24 percent; Cruz Bustamante, 22 percent; Bill Simon, 13 percent; Tom McClintock, 13 percent; Loretta Sanchez*, 12 percent; John Garamendi*, 10 percent; Peter Ueberroth, 7 percent; Bill Jones*, 8 percent; Arianna Huffington, 7 percent; Peter Camejo, 6 percent; Larry Flynt, 6 percent; Gary Coleman, 2 percent.
This bogus poll was very widely reported as Schwarzenegger, 42 percent; Bustamante 22 percent, etc.
Now comes the Field poll, Aug 10-Aug 13. It shows Bustamante, 25 percent; Arnold; 22 percent; etc. The reality: The votes (22 percent) of non-candidates Sanchez (12 percent) and Garamendi (10 percent), not included in this poll, tilted to the one major Democrat, Bustamante. Riordan's and Jones's numbers tilted all over the place.
CNN, USA Today, and Gallup have combined forces to add to the confusion. Their latest poll asks voters if "there is a good chance they could vote for…." No wonder the poll carries this disclaimer: "Because of the nature of the unprecedented recall election, the poll does not project a winner or predict how people might vote."
Also, this new poll includes all registered voters. This is unusual, given a special election's typical low turnout. But no one has a reliable voter-turnout model.
Arnold Schwarzenegger has changed the rules. The massive media coverage could make high turnout a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What, then, happens to voting by mail? In local special and recall elections, absentee votes dominate. This time, their nonetheless significant impact would be less.
Meanwhile, on a broader level, reliable data imply more than synergy. The recall and Schwarzenegger are, in the public mind, one and the same.
The recall's bare 5-to-4 majority? It's suddenly a 2-to-1 landslide. Why? Nearly all media coverage is down on Davis. Voters are being told regularly why Davis is unpopular. Who wants to back a loser? Miraculously, the bad Davis numbers currently hold at all voter-turnout scenarios. It's politically correct to oust him.