8.15.2003

IM BACK AND THINGS TO COME

Well, I’ve been busy lately. I was kicking liberal rear on the recall, and a subsequent, unnamed campaign. But that’s over, so let the blogging begin (again)!

Well, I guess the only story of note these days is the recall. So at this point, let me out in my 14 cents.

First, most of the polls seen about the recall, especially in regards to the replacement question, need to be examined with a curious eye. The reason: there is not a single person that can say with any degree of certainty (or credibility) that they’ve created an accurate turnout model. What is the bump in 18-25 going to look like? How many low propensity voters are going to show up? How much will the media’s constant coverage of the campaign affect turnout? Will that be more felt in media boomtowns like LA? These are serious questions that can’t/won’t be answered until election day, and because no one can accurately answer them, most of the polls are bunk.

That said, let’s take a look at one of the recent polls.

Today’s California Field Poll provides a starting point for recall discussion. Cruz is at 25, Arnold at 22, McClintock at 9, Simon at 8, Ueberroth at 5, Arianna at 4, and Camejo at 2.

A few points about this.

First, this will be Cruz’s low point. At this point there is very little unity among Democrats. That will change when the fear of losing the Governorship becomes real. Democrats will then coalesce around Cruz, taking votes from Arnold.

Second, it is interesting that combined, McClintock and Simon are almost on par with Arnold. At 17% combined, conservatives are really wasting a golden opportunity to get one of their own elected. If one were to drop out and concentrate on running against Barbara Boxer, it would leave a great shot for a conservative to become Governor.

Last, Arnold is toast. Remember that. He’s losing ground as an “outsider” with the promotion of the old Wilson team, and bringing liberals like Warren Buffet and Rob Lowe on board aren’t helping him too much with keeping Republicans around.

The ONLY argument for Arnold is that he can win. This is the same false argument that was used as a rationale for Dick Riordan. Remember that with Riordan, the moment his poll numbers started falling, so to did the merits for the argument to support him. Thus, a freefall ensued. Granted, star power might keep Arnold from collapsing as Riordan did, but that he’s peaked is all I’m saying.

Recall fever is on, and it’s nothing but fun for you and I.

Stay tuned. More to come in the days ahead!

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home