8.19.2003

FIELD POLL – Part 2

TIIIIMMMBBEEEEEEEERRRR!!!
Arnold’s gonna fall, and fall hard.

Looking at the Field Poll, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and his band of Wilsonites, had better be worried.

The initial campaign strategy was this: get major Republicans to tell Party loyalists how great a Republican Arnold is, hoping they’ll then ignore the fact he walks, talks, and acts like a Democrat. That, in turn, will draw Independents and Democrats to the campaign. Problem is, this strategy is already showing signs of weakness.

+ With Cruz Bustamante aligning left, Simon and McClintock right, Arnold has the normally viciously fought over middle all to himself. Yet for some reason, those spineless souls that describe themselves “Independent” are living up to their name, not aligning lockstep behind Arnold.

Just 9% of Democrats and just 27% of Independents support der Arnold. And only 23% of those self-described as middle-of-the-road are supporting Schwarzenegger.

+ What’s more, Arnold’s numbers are soft, being lifted by those groups least likely to vote.

The age group most inclined towards Arnold, not surprisingly, are those 18-39 at 29%. The education-level demographic most fond of Arnold, those with a high school degree or less at 28%. Too bad for Arnold, THESE FOLKS DON’T VOTE.

+ Even worse, Arnold’s disapproval ratings are at a catastrophic 40%, with only 16% yet undecided about him. This, keep in mind, is before he’s laid down one policy proposal, reached out to one constituency group, or spoken publicly about one current event.

Arnold’s going down, and he’s going down hard. And from where I sit, it’s good riddance.

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