8.19.2003

FIELD POLL – Part 1

WHY TOM MCCLINTOCK IS FAR BETTER OFF THAN BILL SIMON.

The Field Poll released over the weekend is very telling, and very encouraging…if you’re a Tom McClintock fan.

While the overall results of the poll show McClintock with just a 1 point lead over Simple Simon, well within the 5-point margin of error, deeper inside do the points that'd put a smile on your face lie.

+ Among REPUBLICANS, McClintock is 2 points up, 19-17. That despite Simon having spent the past two years as the Party’s standard-bearer, and having near total name id among likely voters.

+ Among self-described CONSERVATIVES, McClintock opens a 3-point lead, 21-18.

+ Among typical Republican-leaning demographics, McClintock leads Simon among WHITES 11-9, Men 11-8, and college graduates 20-13. McClintock leads in all but the 40-49 age group.

+ With it being contemplated that the media will lead the GOTV effort with its 24/7 team coverage, McClintock is well placed to take advantage, leading Simon 22-13 in Southern California, an area that makes up 60% of estimated turnout.

+ State tested, voter rejected. Some 86% of the state has already heard what Bill Simon has to offer, and 54% have declined. Amazingly, he still thinks he stands a chance, though only maintaining an overall approval rate of 32%, and having only 14% of the state still undecided about him. The numbers just aren’t there. He doesn’t have the room to go up. That is why many Simon supporters wish he’d have stayed out, and worked more to get his negatives down. Actively campaigning for the “YES on the Recall” campaign would have dramatically helped Bill. However, to run in this race and lose, will forever doom Bill, killing any future chances of holding political office. Splitting the conservative base, ruining (once again) their chances for victory will leave Simon’s only base left, fed up with him.

+ Nowhere to go but up? Tom McClintock surprised many in the Washington elite, and talk show hosts around the country by coming in third in this most recent Field Poll, and every indication is that he’s not done climbing yet. Of the 4 major candidates, McClintock maintains the lowest disapproval rating at 32%. Interestingly, of the major candidates, McClintock maintains the most room for improvement. The approval ratings show that a full 40% of the state has yet to form an opinion of Tom. Generally known as the most candidate with the most commanding grasp of the issues, especially budget issues, Tom has at least respect, if not support, from the liberal establishment. Remember that even the San Francisco Chronicle endorsed his Controller campaign.

Like yeast, time will show McClintock’s numbers continually rising. Democrats will coalesce around Cruz, pulling from Arnold. Conservatives will more and more abandon Arnold. That will kill the Arnold’s only argument among Republicans, that that he can win, and therefore should be supported. As that goes, so goes Arnold. His freefall will leave the door wide open for others, and Tom McClintock will be right there waiting.

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